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Before he was the most powerful banker on Earth, Alan Greenspan was a jazz kid from Washington Heights. Born March 6, 1926, he spent his teenage years at the Juilliard School, training on the clarinet and saxophone. He played in Henry Jerome’s Orchestra alongside a young Stan Getz — yes, that Stan Getz, the tenor saxophone legend who defined cool jazz. Spot that lanky clarinetist in a Village club in 1944 and you would have seen a musician with good timing and better instincts. You would not have guessed he would spend eight decades trying to tame the economic future of the world.
But the arc bent toward ideas. In the 1950s, Greenspan fell in with Ayn Rand’s inner circle, “The Collective,” and contributed “Gold and Economic Freedom” to her 1966 anthology Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal. The essay was a full-throated defense of the gold standard — hard money, let markets discipline themselves. The joke writes itself: the gold-standard ideologue would later, as Fed Chairman, preside over the greatest era of fiat-money expansion in history. He was a libertarian who discovered that crises turn theory into ash.
He arrived at the Fed in 1987, appointed by Reagan, and stayed through four presidencies until 2006. Along the way he weaponized opacity. His speeches were famously impenetrable — a rhetorical fog dubbed “Greenspeak.” He once quipped, “If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” As economists Blinder and Reis later put it, “The secret to Greenspan’s success remains a secret.”
Behind the marble facade, though, was warmth. In 1997 he married NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, in a ceremony officiated by Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Mitchell’s verdict on his proposal style: “He claims he proposed three times before I was able to understand. He was so oblique.” The man who spoke in riddles to Congress could not even pop the question in plain English.
The phrase that defines his legacy landed on December 5, 1996. At the American Enterprise Institute, Greenspan asked, “How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?” The Tokyo Nikkei dropped 3 percent before U.S. traders finished their coffee. He spent a decade trying to walk it back, but the words had escaped his control.
What he meant was that markets can lose their minds. What he built was more complicated. The “Greenspan put” — the market’s faith that the Fed would always ride to the rescue — became his signature. Every crisis drew rate cuts and liquidity. It worked until it didn’t. The moral hazard he incubated — privatize gains, socialize losses — laid the groundwork for 2008.
Then came the reckoning. On October 23, 2008, before Henry Waxman’s committee, Greenspan confessed: “I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works.” Pressed further: “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interest of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders.” The oracle had offered something more valuable than prophecy: humility.
Greenspan died on June 22, 2026, at age 100, from complications of Parkinson’s disease. Mitchell’s statement was characteristically elegant: “He had ‘irrational exuberance’ for baseball, the Washington Commanders, tennis, golf and music, especially jazz.” Even in death, the phrase followed him.
To read his legacy in June 2026 is to watch a mind evolve in public — ideologue to pragmatist, oracle to penitent. He was not always right. He was rarely clear. But he was the man who knew more about the American economy than anyone alive, and who had the honesty to admit what he did not. That honesty is why his voice still echoes through every market decision made today.
1. Trump and the Tariff Tornado
The S&P 500 opened 2025 at 5,827, but by April 7 it had cratered to an intraday low of 4,835 — a 17% wipeout in roughly ninety trading days. The culprit was “Liberation Day,” April 2, 2025, when President Trump unveiled Executive Order 14257: a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, with country-specific levies reaching as high as 50%. China bore the brunt, with duties eventually escalating to a staggering 145% at their peak. The CBOE Volatility Index spiked to an intraday high of 60.13 on April 7, a level last touched during the 2008 global financial crisis.
The policy earthquake, however, ran deeper than the market plunge. Over the following ten months, Trump’s tariff regime mutated more than 50 times — rate hikes, reversals, product exemptions, sudden inclusions — creating a policy fog that made strategic planning nearly impossible. The Tax Foundation tracked the chaos like a fever chart. The damage was measurable. Core PCE inflation rose an estimated 0.8 percentage points from tariff pass-throughs, manufacturing PMI contracted for ten consecutive months with an average reading of 48.9, and unemployment climbed from 4.0% to between 4.4% and 4.6%. A KPMG survey found 86% of CEOs planned price increases — a quiet admission that consumers would foot the bill.
What Greenspan Would See
Greenspan spent eighteen years at the Fed preaching predictable, data-driven frameworks. The Trump tariff tornado was a tax on investment compounded daily. When policy lurches fifty times in ten months, capital expenditures freeze and supply chains fragment. Greenspan would have recognized the pattern immediately: not a trade strategy, but a caprice-driven assault on the planning horizon markets require to function.
Yet the market’s response defied expectations. Despite the chaos, the S&P 500 stood at 7,354 by June 2026 — a 26.2% gain from its January 2025 opening, and a 52.1% rebound from the April 7 lows. Part of the answer lies in the “Greenspan put,” the ingrained expectation that American institutions step in when policy chaos threatens systemic collapse. That faith was rewarded on February 20, 2026, when the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the President to impose tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts held that the power to tax resides with Congress alone under Article I. Trump pivoted within hours to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing 10-15% across-the-board tariffs with a 150-day congressional fuse. The constitutional ceiling had been established.
2. Bitcoin: Digital Gold or Irrational Exuberance 2.0?
Had Alan Greenspan still led the Fed, he would have spotted the 2025 Bitcoin bubble instantly: the crypto surged to $123,561 amid retail hype, then crashed 52% to $59,500–$63,500 by June 2026. Total crypto market cap shrank from $4.27 trillion to $2.1 trillion, wiping out trillions in notional value.
Yet a counter-trend emerged as retail sentiment faded: institutional adoption exploded. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF hit $67 billion; Strategy held $51 billion worth of BTC; Luxembourg’s state fund bought Bitcoin, and U.S. Bitcoin ETFs drew $58.72 billion in inflows. Major Wall Street banks launched crypto offerings. Meanwhile, 2025 U.S. policy shifted favorably: Trump rolled back crypto curbs, created a national Bitcoin reserve, backed the GENIUS stablecoin bill, and the SEC dropped its Coinbase lawsuit.
So which was it? Legitimization through adoption, or were the suits last to the party?
Through Greenspan’s Eyes
Greenspan would have found the question almost quaint. His views on Bitcoin were characteristically blunt: in 2013, he admitted, “I do not understand where the backing of Bitcoin is coming from.” By 2017, he had hardened his verdict — Bitcoin was “not a rational currency.”
Greenspan regarded gold as the ultimate inflation-resistant store of value. Though Bitcoin supporters dub it digital gold, he rejected the comparison: gold faces no hacking, network or regulatory risks, relying on no external infrastructure to hold its worth.
Yet, Greenspan did not reject new technology. He acknowledged blockchain’s real-world financial benefits, yet drew lessons from the dot-com bubble: useful technology does not equal fairly priced assets. He believed bubbles should be allowed to burst, as underlying industry infrastructure survives market crashes.
Crypto’s political fragility would worry Greenspan most. Trump’s dramatic U-turn on Bitcoin was purely opportunistic. Executive orders and laws like the GENIUS Act tie crypto to shifting political leadership, creating unstable, changeable regulatory frameworks.
3. AI Stocks: Productivity Miracle or Bubble?
Markets faced a looming question: is AI a lasting revolution, or just another speculative bubble mixing transformative tech with reckless speculation? Greenspan, who coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” amid the dot-com crash, saw stark parallels. NVIDIA surged 24,000% over five years, yet slid 18.6% from its May 2026 peak to $192.53 by June; all Magnificent 7 stocks traded double-digit below their 52-week highs, signaling fading market momentum.
AI infrastructure spending hit unprecedented heights. Big Tech allocated $635–665 billion in 2026 CAPEX, led by Amazon ($200B), Alphabet ($175–185B), Microsoft ($145B) and Meta ($115–135B). NVIDIA led the boom with $215.9B FY2026 revenue (65% YoY growth), $193.7B from data center chips. Adoption metrics looked strong: 88% of enterprises used AI, which drew 61% of global VC funding ($258.7B in 2025), fueling the popular narrative that AI hardware suppliers would generate endless profits.
Yet extreme concentration risk would alarm Greenspan. The top 10 S&P 500 stocks made up 41% of the index’s weight (a dot-com-era high) but only 32% of total earnings. The Magnificent 7 single-handedly delivered over 40% of the S&P’s 2025 returns. Markets reliant on a tiny group of stocks grow fragile; weak earnings, competition or shifting sentiment can trigger severe cascading selloffs.
January 27, 2025 delivered a critical stress test: Chinese AI firm DeepSeek released a low-cost rival model, wiping $589 billion from NVIDIA’s market cap in one day—the largest single-day stock loss ever. This validated Greenspan’s view that market valuations rely heavily on narrative, which can flip instantly, raising doubts over Big Tech’s massive GPU-focused capex.
Valuations distinguish the AI rally from the dot-com bubble. The S&P 500 hit a 60 forward P/E at the 2000 tech peak, while its 2026 multiple stood at a milder 21–23. Unlike unprofitable dot-com firms such as Pets.com, today’s AI leaders like NVIDIA post massive real revenue. Any overheating lies in investor behavior, not price multiples.
A more fitting parallel is Britain’s 1840s railway mania: groundbreaking infrastructure, flood of retail capital, overbuilding far outstripping immediate demand, followed by a crash then long-term economic value. Big Tech’s $650 billion annual AI spending smacks of FOMO-fueled overinvestment; some data centers will prove prescient, others wasteful.
4. The Final Word
Greenspan learned one hard truth across eighteen years at the Fed: human nature doesn’t change, but the costumes it wears do. The tariff tornado, the crypto rollercoaster, the AI gold rush — three crises, one recurring protagonist.
5. Reference
1.Andrea Mitchell statement on Greenspan’s death, People / AOL, June 22, 2026
2.Blinder, Alan and Ricardo Reis. “Understanding the Greenspan Standard,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2005
3.Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance. S&P 500, VIX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq market data, January 2025 – June 2026
4.Business Insider. “Alan Greenspan’s ‘irrational exuberance’ warning still rings true today,” June 22, 2026
5.Business Insider. “Ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s Top Quotes for 2023,” January 4, 2023
6.Cato Institute. “Asset Bubbles and Their Consequences”
7.City Journal. “Alan Greenspan: Neither Maestro Nor Villain,” June 23, 2026
8.CoinGecko / TradingView. Bitcoin price data, January 2025 – June 2026
9.Columbia International Affairs Online. “Alan Greenspan Explains ‘Mistake’ behind Global Meltdown”
10.Council on Foreign Relations. “Alan Greenspan on Central Banks, Stagnation, and Gold,” October 29, 2014
11.Federal Reserve Board. Carlson, Mark. “A Brief History of the 1987 Stock Market Crash,” 2007
12.Federal Reserve History. “Stock Market Crash of 1987”
13.Federal Reserve research paper. “The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis,” NBER
14.Financial Times. “The Map and the Territory, by Alan Greenspan,” October 18, 2013
And more.
DISCLAIMER
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any cryptocurrencies. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
©Linux Group, October 2024.
Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of October 7, 2024 or as of most recently available.